The Brick-yard Homepage Brickwerks
Forum Home Forum Home > T5 Section > T5 Chat
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Off topic but worth keeping an eye on
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Off topic but worth keeping an eye on

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>
Author
Message
104T28 View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie


Joined: 25 Feb 06
Status: Offline
Points: 332
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 104T28 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Off topic but worth keeping an eye on
    Posted: 03 Jan 08 at 08:44

Many many months ago quite a few of us on here debated this subject and most predicted exactly this scenario. Personally I think it's a good thing and maybe now the country will look to proper industry again and not be populated solely by amateur property developers.......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=RRWJD Q1TXT5A1QFIQMFCFF4AVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/02/cnhouses10 2.xml

Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jan 08 at 11:00

Thanks for the post 104, it's good to keep up with what's going on out there in 'gel-ed hair world!' Like you I reckon it's a good thing to have a correction - what we have seen is unsustainable. Just hope it's not going to be a full recession though?

Back to Top
104T28 View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie


Joined: 25 Feb 06
Status: Offline
Points: 332
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 104T28 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jan 08 at 17:21
Thanks Studio, who knows,  it could deepen into something more protracted seeing as the banks appear to be just as reckless as some of their borrowers! I have limited knowledge but seeing as my business is about 70% property related it is a concern for us; though because we saw this coming we have hopefully limited our liability to some degree. Like the hair gel comment, & know exactly what you mean - easy money no more!
Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 08 at 05:37

Just think, for a change estate agents might actually have to WORK when they're at work! & does this mean there'll be alot of cheap Mini Coopers and Porsches for sale? 

Back to Top
landyspeed View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie
Avatar

Joined: 08 Jul 06
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 372
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote landyspeed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 08 at 16:44

its a really complicated subject

On one hand financially the average household has stretched itself to the max and we may be heading for a property meltdown I really hope we arent for everyones sakes.

But on another we are building way too few houses and the wrong sort ie Flats. I recently read an article that said we need to be building 400000 houses a year and last year we managed 178000, shortfalls lead to price increases in the classic supply and demand economics.

One thing to look out for is the chancellors announcement over the next week or so about capital gains tax changes which are due to start in April. If he goes through with a drop from 40% TO 18 % CGT this could lead to an influx of properties to the market as second home owners exit.

Unfortunately for those who hate BTL landlords it is probably these who will gain the most from a crash in a bizzare sort of way. Should a crash occur there will be a large number of tenants available from those who lose their houses and also financial pressures on familes will cause a rise in the divorce rates hence even more homes will be needed.

 There currently also  is a real shortage of base level rental properties.

I really hope we dont have a crash as peoples spending will reduce significantly and everyone on this forum; be them back street mechanics or multimillion pound property developers will ultimately be affected in a big way.

Landy

 

P.S Happy New Year to all

 

all the gear no idea!!!!
Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 08 at 22:26

Some good points Landy; but in the medium term I reckon with BTLetters getting out because they cannot cover mortgage costs, it will benefit first time buyers and maybe that is where a recovery will start? At the end of the day it's all part of the UK's boom-bust cycle which of course they said would never happen again! 104's link pretty much says it all 'until affordability returns there will be a correction' & personally I don't see quite the housing shortage that evryone talks about...apparently our Polish friends are already moving back home because of the UK slowdown!

Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 08 at 22:38

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml?xml=/property /2008/01/04/nosplit/pcrash105.xml

oh dear  just read above article.....houses may well be worth less in 2010 than they are now, bit like owning a T5 then!

Back to Top
104T28 View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie


Joined: 25 Feb 06
Status: Offline
Points: 332
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 104T28 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jan 08 at 17:51
Originally posted by Studioman Studioman wrote:

Just think, for a change estate agents might actually have to WORK when they're at work! & does this mean there'll be alot of cheap Mini Coopers and Porsches for sale? 

wouldn't mind finding a cheap mini cooper, my girlfriend's decided she wants one of those so maybe we'll get lucky!

today's press is full of property price meltdown so it's obviously common knowledge now that the slide has started. all we can hope is that it doesn't decline for years like the last time in 1990. still, at least first time buyers should pick up a bargain in about a years time.

Back to Top
landyspeed View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie
Avatar

Joined: 08 Jul 06
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 372
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote landyspeed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jan 08 at 17:58

wouldn't mind finding a cheap mini cooper, my girlfriend's decided she wants one of those so maybe we'll get lucky!

Hi 104 t28

we have had both coopers and now have a mini one D (diesel) on a 53 plate.

The diesel is brilliant and does well over 50 to the gallon as against the coopers low 20s, worth considering if she does a lot of miles

all the gear no idea!!!!
Back to Top
104T28 View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie


Joined: 25 Feb 06
Status: Offline
Points: 332
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 104T28 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jan 08 at 23:08
cheers for the advice Landy, she does loads of miles so we'll take a look at the diesels
Back to Top
Tim Hamnett View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 11 Nov 05
Location: sitting down
Status: Offline
Points: 853
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tim Hamnett Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 08 at 11:20
I've been shouting that it's unsustainable for years. Personally I have an interest in prices falling. Our area has seen something like a 300% growth in 10 years and left me unable to buy.
Just bear in mind who's in number 10 and that the Telegraph is the most right wing of the heavyweights. There's nothing like a good threat to the personal wealth of middle England to grab a few votes for the Tories.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 08 at 16:18

Good points Tim, & I think Brown is trying to blame it all on the US situation but I reckon we're even worse than them!

In my area in Bucks/Oxon prices really are falling with 5% - 10% cuts across the board but most noticable is that those reductions are not producing sales and there appears to be a complete shutdown of the market with people I guess, just waiting to see what happens?

Think this can only benefit people such as yourselves and good luck to you. Hopefully would be speculators will realise that the Gordon Gecco approach to life has it's pitfalls!

Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 08 at 16:32

believe the big agents and internet agencies (ie prime location and rightmove) have tried to close this website down and have achieved to some degree removing some details and pics; however it is quite interesing to see what's going on in your area.....

www.propertysnake.co.uk

 

Back to Top
Tim Hamnett View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 11 Nov 05
Location: sitting down
Status: Offline
Points: 853
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tim Hamnett Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 08 at 17:13
Very interesting.
Back to Top
104T28 View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie


Joined: 25 Feb 06
Status: Offline
Points: 332
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 104T28 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 08 at 19:41

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

Tim, another comprehensive website covering the subject

Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 08 at 17:37

might be abit grim but if there's a programme devoted to this subject tonight (wed) ITV 10.00pm

Back to Top
starsKEY View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 07 Aug 07
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 364
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote starsKEY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 08 at 18:26

Inserted this top bit after I finished my rant. Apologies its long winded, but clearly this winds me up....

I like the anti buy to let angle adopted....We are quite unique in the amount of 'owned property' within europe. Who exactly will serve the rental market if there were nobody who bought these properties? Whilst my new house is being built, we are renting. As a Student, I rented. When I first moved to Newcastle, we rented. I work away mid week, I rent a room.... Damn those landlords, theyre screwing me right over, or perhaps supplying a demand?

Myself I blame the plumbers for the house price increase and the subsequent unaffordable market, you should see some of the increases these guys have implemented in their prices over the last few years. No wonder no one can afford a house. Lets not forget brickies and joiners too. My joiner turned up in a brand new Vivaro Sportive the other day, he must have money to burn! (£200 for a mornings work too (floor joists), thats in the region of a technical chartered proffessional with 10 yrs ecperience working in the oil industry!)

Maybe if 'everyone' didnt drive around in brand new hatch backs (bought on credit), on Iphones (on expensive tarrifs) talking to their mates in £200 jeans then first time buyers would be 'able' to afford a house. Utter bollocks. My first house was £160k and I was properly broke when we bought it, I had to sell my nice car and suck it up. Now, because Im building a 'big' house apparently Im 'lucky'. Nothing to do with the fact I worked my arse off, moved away from 'home' and bought my jeans from TK max, didnt go out every weekend and lived in less solubrious (sp?) surroundings for a few years!

Im not too arsed whether property prices fall (apparently by circa 20% now, rather than the previously hinted 40's) as because I've worked hard (or am 'lucky'), it's unlikely that I'll be in negative equity, I would really love an old country manor, the sort you see an old porsche parked outside on the big sweeping drive rather than the newbuild place we are currently building, so if they fall too, maybe they'll be more affordable. Hope so.

If there are cheap properties to be had, I'll buy them, then rent them to the people who complain that despite properties rising they're still too expensive, I guarantee they'll still be about! They'll probably see less earnings though, on account of the media reporting and subsequent turndown. Im certainly being more carefull with my cash at the minute - just in case, so I'm not flashing my cash at the motocross shop becasue somethings shiny, so his earnings are down, as are his daughters, who works there - less of a christmas bonus, so she spends less at boots etc etc (I know I dont need to explain comerce, but Im ranting here)

I know there are people who genuinely cant afford to buy a house where they live, my sister in Banstead for instance, a proffessional with a degree and a partner on good money also, but if they were that arsed, they'd move elsewhere, she's a teacher, him an aero fitter, both could get jobs nearer me on probably the same money but rather than their 3 bed semi being worth £350k, it would be £200k.

Back to my previous point, car loan for brand new punto say, £120 a month. Phone contract £45 a month, 4 nights out a month £200, designer clothing £200 a month (plus for some I know, who live at home still) so theres £565...

A 120k mortgage at 6% over 25 yrs is £770 a month. An average salary is apparently 24k, which is a take home of approx £1480 a month. That leaves £500 a month to live on after mortgage and bills.

How old is everyone on here? Im not old, just turned 30 in fact, but I sold an 18 month old car, vectra 2.5V6 GSi and bought an 8 yr old diesel corsa when I bought my first house (it was actually a very nice first house and I always said I'd never sell the car to fund a house!) - it was more reliable than the bloody vectra! Is there anyone here who is or knows some one who has had to have a car so shit that they couldnt always guarantee to get to their mates party ( I know there is a T5 joke in here somewhere) and would probably have to drink own brand beer when they got there? Im telling you, its a thing of the past! Me and my partner (whose a female, but I say partner to give her the equality she deserves) often discuss whether we enjoyed ourselves more when we were 100% flat broke or now. Im not sure. My toys are shinier, we bought a MASSIVE turkey this year and mortgage aside I have very little debt, but I can fondly remember not having any off it, yet having a cracking time, forcing our new garden furniture into a mini 1000 (which we used for our christmas dinner - the furniture, not the mini) Mostly while my mates were pissing it up the wall and mincing round in nice motors on finance! Those that spring to mind are still living at home, moaning about the price of houses.

Finally, how is a downturn a good thing for first time buyers? If you have finally stumped up for your new pad, with a 100% graduate mortgage at four times your earnings, 20k of student debt (mostly from drinking ) and suddenly then find that your house is worth 20% less, yet say for instance you fall out with your new other half, or get offered a new job, you need to sell. Brilliant.

Great news for them eh!

 

Apologies, rant over. I'll get my coat.

 

Its not Aircooled, It's Airconditioned.
Back to Top
Studioman View Drop Down
Yardie
Yardie


Joined: 04 Apr 06
Status: Offline
Points: 969
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Studioman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 08 at 18:51

It's all a lottery starsKEY, & an economic cycle, but long term you're doing the right thing. And we all need a home. Though it has to be good news for first time buyers who are thinking of buying later this year.

Back to Top
landyspeed View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie
Avatar

Joined: 08 Jul 06
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 372
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote landyspeed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 08 at 20:40

Hi Starskey.... good rant....... 

I am in some peoples eyes one of those  who has got into buy to lets......   In 2001 at the age of 28 I gambled every penny I had and could get hold of and got a number of huge mortgages on a number of flats in Plymouth; at the time I rented out every room in my house to mates to afford the mortgage. I nigh on begged every one of them to get  their own flat but they all told me that property prices were going to crash (thet still all rent now) 

What I couldnt believe was that I was looking at flats (back in 2001 in plymouth ) where people living in them had VAST collections of DVDs ( I only had a video) and huge plasma/LCD tellys with The latest Play stations stuff I could only dream of.. 

If anything does cause house prices to fall it will be the consumer in all of us  (i'm the worst one for ticking the options list when it came to buying my van ) for too long the economy has been based on the % peoples houses have been going up.

A friend works as a porsche driving/cooper agent in London  and says the amount of Russian and Chinese money flowing into property is huge and this will be a major part of house price activity in the future, All I know is whats on home turf as a fact though...... I am overseeing the sale  of some flats in plymouth for a friend at the moment.............we put one on the market just after Xmas it has a sale agreed for £500 less than asking within a week..

People at least are still buying in the South West.

 

Landy

 

all the gear no idea!!!!
Back to Top
104T28 View Drop Down
Groupie
Groupie


Joined: 25 Feb 06
Status: Offline
Points: 332
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 104T28 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 08 at 21:15
Loads of good points and it's interesting to debate something like this with a good cross-section of people. Having said that, it is an incredibly emotive subject in the UK, people base so much of their hopes, dreams and perceived success on on the property they live in.
I have always owned my own property and stuggled like hell to get my first place when I was just eighteen and like you Landy I had to forgo the material things most of my peers were in-to. It to [modestly] payed off for me financially but the wider picture of a divided and discontent society is something that needs addressing and if the politicians won't do it then I guess it's the good old 'boom and bust' cycle to act as the leveller once again.

We saw this correction coming some time ago and acted appropiately to protect ourselves in the interim. To have mentioned something like a correction in house prices a year ago would have probably been met with laughter! However, it is now upon us and in my [home counties] area prices are about 10% down already and still very little is selling. Landy, I reckon the Southwest might lag abit, but if you are well covered with your margins it won't affect you. If the margins are tight for others then it's a totally different story.

My pals in northampton bought 2 buy-to-lets last year and struggled to rent them and now they are worth less than they paid for them with rents barely covering the costs. People talk of buy-to-let as 'long-term' but rarely do thay mean that when they see no capital appreciation. The last ten years have been a great so called 'golden era' where it's actually been quite difficult to go wrong with property but I fear the next few years will be very different.

If you own a home as I do that's fine but to buy now or to do anything speculative now would be ignoring the best advice and rather reckless, in my opinion.

Think someone said before on here, maybe a California would be a better investment over the next year or so!

Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 12.06
Copyright ©2001-2023 Web Wiz Ltd.

The WebThis site