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EU...in or out...

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Vanorak
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gregozedobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 16 at 03:41
Originally posted by clift_d clift_d wrote:

Leaving drinks this evening for the first round of brexit redundancies at work - nine people leaving (about 20% of the office) none of whom will be replaced. Cry


Doing more with less (people and other resources) is a constant theme these days, but surely even the stupidest boss/manager must eventually realise there are absolute limits to this approach.
ELVIS: "apply accuracy/brevity/clarity rule before you put ones fingers near the keyboard."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 16 at 09:46
This is a crazy knee jerk reaction by the country. Most businesses cannot see more than a couple of months ahead ( iff they are lucky ) brexit will not happen for a couple of years. Wtf has gone wrong with this Country we are talking ourselves into resection
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 16 at 11:34
Sorry, but that just isn't the case. Most business plans need to think in the long term, not just months ahead.

For example a project to build 150 houses on a site can be ten years from aquisition of the land, through planning and construction, until the point where the houses are complete and the buyers hand over their money. That's ten years without any income on your expenditure and so you've got to be able to forecast your construction costs, materials costs, interest on the loans you've made to fund the project, etc, etc, over that ten year period. You say brexit will take a couple of years so what figures are businesses supposed to plug in to their financial projections to cover that?



Edited by clift_d - 23 Jul 16 at 12:23
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nicq View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 16 at 11:50
In ten years you can have two changes of Goverment with different planning rules.
What's the difference.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 16 at 12:22
The risks of those kinds of changes can be factored in. Planning is a maybe three to four year part of the process, and governments consult on changes before they apply them which can take years in itself, and then those changes can take time to be implemented at local authority level. These things don't happen overnight.

Brexit however has suddenly chucked a great big spanner in the works. You can predict things a bit until Article 50 is implemented because the regulatory regime stays the same, although we're already seeing materials and subcontract costs rise due to the pound slipping. However you can't predict those things further ahead, so any project that is the stage when those costs are a significant part of viability is being put on hold. Projects that are already on site are being built out, but at the moment it looks like the construction work is going to start drying up in 18 months or so as the projects that would be in the pipeline to follow on are being parked.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 16 at 22:36
Defiantly half empty with you !!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote danstervan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Oct 16 at 20:59
^^^ To be fair, these days a quid will probably only buy you half a glass full. Tongue

We should have a wee bet on what the pound will bottom out to.
Think I've still got some old Italian Lira in a box somewhere that may soon be worth more than a quid.
Or maybe the pound will literally bottom out and a sheet of toilet roll will be worth more. The idea of wiping my arse on a bit of paper with the Queen's coupon on it seems quite fitting. LOL

Her Majesty's Government's Brexit strategy appears to be of a similarly low standard to the dude that hung the flag in the vid. Geek

Brexit Affects Sterling's Slide

How low can you go?




But they say every cloud has a silver lining... No more fookin Marmite! LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote danstervan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 16 at 20:34
Hey nicq, seeing as you were a keen brexiteer, can you give me some advice.
With the pound dropping in value against the euro and further potential price increases due to single market trade implications, would you recommend I procure a Euro manufactured VW campervan and car now, or should I hold off and buy a best of British Leyland Sherpa van and a Maxi or Allegro mk10 when the great British automobile industry gets its arse in gear?  LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 16 at 21:14
The pound will stabilise, business does not like any changes.
To be honest buy a British built Honda great value at the moment.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 16 at 14:28
LOL Which business are these that will stabilise the pound? Big businesses and the currency speculators don't care where they put their money, whether in the UK or elsewhere, and you'd be a fool to believe that they can't make as much of a buck from a sinking pound as they can from a stable currency. Small businesses have no choice or influence over any of this and they just have to try to ride the wave.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 16 at 15:29
You didn't read.
I said the pound will stabilise not business will stabilise the pound.
There is a massive difference.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote light Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Dec 16 at 14:39
Originally posted by clift_d clift_d wrote:

Sorry, but that just isn't the case. Most business plans need to think in the long term, not just months ahead.

For example a project to build 150 houses on a site can be ten years from aquisition of the land, through planning and construction, until the point where the houses are complete and the buyers hand over their money. That's ten years without any income on your expenditure and so you've got to be able to forecast your construction costs, materials costs, interest on the loans you've made to fund the project, etc, etc, over that ten year period. You say brexit will take a couple of years so what figures are businesses supposed to plug in to their financial projections to cover that?

Are you telling me you can or your employer can forecast the cost of material/labour and fiance costs for all parties involved ten years in advance ?...if so i realy think house building is not the most profitable business to be in with those skills and certainty 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote light Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Dec 16 at 14:50
Originally posted by clift_d clift_d wrote:

The risks of those kinds of changes can be factored in. Planning is a maybe three to four year part of the process, and governments consult on changes before they apply them which can take years in itself, and then those changes can take time to be implemented at local authority level. These things don't happen overnight.

Brexit however has suddenly chucked a great big spanner in the works. You can predict things a bit until Article 50 is implemented because the regulatory regime stays the same, although we're already seeing materials and subcontract costs rise due to the pound slipping. However you can't predict those things further ahead, so any project that is the stage when those costs are a significant part of viability is being put on hold. Projects that are already on site are being built out, but at the moment it looks like the construction work is going to start drying up in 18 months or so as the projects that would be in the pipeline to follow on are being parked.

It`s got nothing to do with costs why the big builders are cutting back it`s simple supply and demand 
They know if immigration is cut dramatically the demand side will fall dramatically ,if they carry on building there would then be an over supply which would likely lead to lower prices and profits .....it`s all about controlling prices via the supply side 

Thsi is the reason all the big builders share prices crashed after the vote ...although they have somewhat recovered now ..ripe for the speculators to short again when article 50 is invoked  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jason k Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Dec 16 at 16:00
House demand has nothing to do with immigration.

The builders shares plummeted because people feared another crash with the economic uncertainty of brexit. I've been in the construction industry for over twenty years and it's busier now than I've ever known it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Dec 16 at 17:04
Like I said wait, a lot of it was scaremongering.
Danstervan did you get you diesel VW van with dodgy emissions that you won't be able to use in any city soon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Dec 16 at 02:05
Originally posted by light light wrote:

Are you telling me you can or your employer can forecast the cost of material/labour and fiance costs for all parties involved ten years in advance ?...if so i realy think house building is not the most profitable business to be in with those skills and certainty 

You're over simplifying what I said.

All businesses need to estimate costs over the lifespan of a project to ensure they make a profit when a product hits the market - that's as true for building houses as making televisions. If the market is stable then you can estimate construction cost inflation based upon previous years with some degree of certainty. However, if the market takes a plunge and threatens to go down further, as after the referendum, then the risk your estimates are wrong increases, then your risk-benefit analysis figures don't work anymore, and so you consolidate rather than invest. For example, the UK currently imports roughly two-thirds of all construction materials, and the cost of these have all increased by 10% - 15% in the last six months. Currently things have stabilised a bit after the initial shock, but then we need to remember we are still in the EU. If the three brexiteers get their way and we drop off a cliff then the effects are not going to be pretty.


Edited by clift_d - 27 Dec 16 at 02:11
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote danstervan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 17 at 21:40
Originally posted by nicq nicq wrote:

Danstervan did you get you diesel VW van with dodgy emissions that you won't be able to use in any city soon.


Sorry for delayed response. I've been busy going round my banks and converting all my notes in to coinage as the monetary value of the metal might soon be worth more than the currency value of Sterling...

Where did I say I'd be buying a new VW diesel? Confused Plus, I don't drive in cities anyway.

Maybe you are trying to infer I should hold off buying a van for the time being and wait a bit longer for the imminent arrival of the new British Leyland Sherpa campervan with hybrid technology powered by fermented British jam?
It will no doubt be along any day now... Once the British steel industry gets up and running again. And Lucas reform and make starter motors and alternators, seeing a Bosch and Valeo ones will be 10 - 15% more expensive what with the new found purchasing power of the green queen. LOL






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 17 at 22:01
Originally posted by danstervan danstervan wrote:

Originally posted by nicq nicq wrote:

Danstervan did you get you diesel VW van with dodgy emissions that you won't be able to use in any city soon.


Sorry for delayed response. I've been busy going round my banks and converting all my notes in to coinage as the monetary value of the metal might soon be worth more than the currency value of Sterling...

Where did I say I'd be buying a new VW diesel? Confused Plus, I don't drive in cities anyway.

Maybe you are trying to infer I should hold off buying a van for the time being and wait a bit longer for the imminent arrival of the new British Leyland Sherpa campervan with hybrid technology powered by fermented British jam?
It will no doubt be along any day now... Once the British steel industry gets up and running again. And Lucas reform and make starter motors and alternators, seeing a Bosch and Valeo ones will be 10 - 15% more expensive what with the new found purchasing power of the green queen. LOL
No I would suggest a v8 yank van as petrol and will be no import duty






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr Dub Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 17 at 20:11
Should help us keep all the french filth and Peugeot away
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