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Mike Noc View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mike Noc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 20 at 20:25
Originally posted by clift_d clift_d wrote:

Try me...  I'm easily persuaded...  evidence and facts does it for me every time.


Sadly you aren't mate - you've got an agenda and you quote the 'evidence and facts' as you see it to further your cause. Nowt wrong with that mind but let's be honest about it.

As an example a quote from you:

The s*** piles up so fast you need wings to stay above it...

Ford to close Bridgend engine plant with 1500 jobs lost on site and many hundreds more lost in the supply chain.

At this point I think it's fair to say that if you still think that a No Deal Brexit, or indeed any kind of Brexit, will be beneficial for the UK then you've either got your hand in the cookie jar or you're a muppet.

Now, in reality Ford have been pulling out of Europe for the last few years, and yes that included plants like Genk in Belgium and the transmission plant in Bordeaux France.

Ford also pulled the plug on the Transit factory in Southampton 2013, 3 years before the referendum, and moved production to Turkey, who aren't in the EU. How did they afford this move? Well step forward the EU with a cheap loan - just the thing we needed to protect our jobs when we were in the EU.....
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 20 at 21:08
Its the same with your fishing industry quotes. Your quotes are for the past few year's
Go back 20/30 years we had hundreds of fishing boats from dozens of ports, now we have a few from a few throwing half there catch back due to quotes while large ships collect tons per day legally.
Tell me the EU logic. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 20 at 23:12
Originally posted by Mike Noc Mike Noc wrote:

Sadly you aren't mate - you've got an agenda and you quote the 'evidence and facts' as you see it to further your cause. Nowt wrong with that mind but let's be honest about it.

Well that's novel... I don't think I've ever been accused about not being clear about which side of the argument I'm on, but there you go.

To be clear... for those at the back who really have been sleeping... I voted remain.

And the reason I quote 'evidence and facts' that support my side of the argument is because, by and large, the evidence and the facts support my side of the argument. It's not difficult, I just craft a quick google search, and up pops a ton of evidence and facts from across the world, with links to original data sources, that back up my position...simples. The reasons most of the 'facts' from the other side don't stand scrutiny is either because they aren’t based on any evidence, or can't point back to any form of actual evidence or datatset, or because they are highly selective in how they choose to portray the data they are using. 

Originally posted by Mike Noc Mike Noc wrote:

Now, in reality Ford have been pulling out of Europe for the last few years, and yes that included plants like Genk in Belgium and the transmission plant in Bordeaux France.

Agreed. The 2012 £80M loan was only a part of a raft of loans and other measures that the EU threw at Ford to try to get them to keep factories open across Europe, including at Southampton, and it was signed off by the Conservative government - George Osbourne was the UK rep on the EIB board of governors. I commend to anyone who doesn't have any background on the whole debacle a rather long winded, 47-part Twitter thread, which puts this one loan into the context of a 10 year programme of Ford closures in both the US and EU, here:


You could probably make an argument that everyone got stiffed in favour of Ford stockholders - ask those workers in Genk or Bordeaux who also lost their jobs at about the same time whether they think Ford should have been loaned anything at all by the EIB, and they would probably have plenty to say about it. But I think to cast that one loan as a decision taken by the ‘nasty’ EU in order to get the ‘plucky’ Brits is, I would suggest, a little bit on the paranoid side.





Edited by clift_d - 15 Feb 20 at 01:24
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 20 at 23:56
Originally posted by nicq nicq wrote:

Its the same with your fishing industry quotes. Your quotes are for the past few year's
Go back 20/30 years we had hundreds of fishing boats from dozens of ports, now we have a few from a few throwing half there catch back due to quotes while large ships collect tons per day legally.
Tell me the EU logic. 

I'm afraid there's not much point in talking about the UK fishing industry of 30 years ago, because it simply doesn't exist any more than the Tudor fishing fleet, and nor is it likely to again. Information from the last few years is relevant because it is based upon what stocks our fishermen have been able to catch, who they've been able to sell their catch to, what the UK population want to buy, and where the supermarkets procure that from, etc.

There's no denying that large parts of our fishing industry have had a raw deal in terms of their FQAs (fixed quota allocations), but that is entirely down to how successive UK Governments have chosen to allocates shares in the UK’s “total allowable catch”. The fact that the larger factory operations got the lions share of the catch, leaving smaller family boats to scrape by was largely down to pretty reprehensible behaviour by our elected representatives.

Anyone who thinks that PM Johnson and his cabinet of clowns wouldn't throw the fishing industry 'under the bus' in a heartbeat, in order to get preferential financial services access for their city chums, is an idiot. I'm afraid things are probably not going to get better any time soon for UK fishing.


Edited by clift_d - 15 Feb 20 at 01:26
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Feb 20 at 09:27
clift_d you are so full of yourself, it's never the EU at fault. Don't you think that previous discussions made by our government were forced upon us, you make it sound as if none of it was the EU it was all previous governments fault.
The best thing I can suggest is for you to move to somewhere like Greece and find out what it's really like. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote danstervan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Feb 20 at 11:23
I'm sure this is nothing to be concerned about.




Edited by danstervan - 15 Feb 20 at 11:26
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Feb 20 at 12:20
 
Originally posted by nicq nicq wrote:

clift_d you are so full of yourself, it's never the EU at fault. Don't you think that previous discussions made by our government were forced upon us, you make it sound as if none of it was the EU it was all previous governments fault.
The best thing I can suggest is for you to move to somewhere like Greece and find out what it's really like. 

Of course the EU has plenty to improve on, but not the hyperbolic nonsense that fueled the leave campaign.

For example the UK was one of the strongest proponents of the policy to expand EU membership to Turkey, and yet during the referendum this expansion was sold as something being foisted on the UK by the rest of the EU, as something which was unstoppable, even though we had a final veto over Turkey joining like every other EU country, and something that was inevitable, even though Turkey had only managed to meet one out of thirty six criteria required for membership in ten years leading up to the referendum.

Similarly the expansion of the EU to include countries like Romania - why did the UK government not impose the same sorts of controls as other EU states on economic migrants from these new countries?

And it’s not the previous government I’m talking about... it’s the CURRENT government - they’ve been in power now for over ten years, and Brexit voters have just given them another five with an increased majority. It’s the same ‘austerity’ party that Cameron ran that has devastated social services up and down the country, it’s the same ‘hostile environment’ party that May ran which led to the Windrush scandal and Grenfell, and it’s now PM Johnson’s party to with as he please - bridge over the Beaufort Dyke anyone? This is a man who can’t tell you how many kids he has, or who paid for his fancy Caribbean holiday. 


Edited by clift_d - 15 Feb 20 at 15:08
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Feb 20 at 14:46
you have just answered your own argument, it was Cameron who wanted Turkey in it was Cameron that wanted Romania etc. He is no longer the pm we have moved on haven't you noticed. He was so week he bailed out when the going got tough. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Feb 20 at 20:02
Originally posted by nicq nicq wrote:

you have just answered your own argument, it was Cameron who wanted Turkey in it was Cameron that wanted Romania etc. He is no longer the pm we have moved on haven't you noticed. He was so week he bailed out when the going got tough. 

You’ll need to elaborate on what you actually mean. Surely you aren’t actually saying that the root of why you voted for Brexit was to get at Cameron?

I guess if I have a thesis it is that many of the things that people voted to Leave for were actually a result of Tory policy rather than the EU - not all of them, but a substantial proportion. Think for example the rules about state aid. Our government would say that there’s nothing they can do to stop a company like British Steel being bought up by overseas interests because of the EU, but that doesn’t seem to stop the French or German governments assisting their major industries. The problem is that our government are so wedded to the free market, and so in the pocket of the vulture capitalists in city hedge funds, that they would rather see essential industries asset stripped than contemplate the notion of any form of state aid. Politically however, they realise their friends in right wing press would find it difficult to spin their callousness to the general public, and so EU state aid rules are blamed. 




Edited by clift_d - 15 Feb 20 at 20:18
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Feb 20 at 20:48
I would say that the majority of brexit supporters are probability labour supporters but due to the fact that they are totally incapable of running a government their supporters have turned to the only option. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mike Noc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Feb 20 at 21:53
Originally posted by clift_d clift_d wrote:

Originally posted by Mike Noc Mike Noc wrote:

Sadly you aren't mate - you've got an agenda and you quote the 'evidence and facts' as you see it to further your cause. Nowt wrong with that mind but let's be honest about it.

Well that's novel... I don't think I've ever been accused about not being clear about which side of the argument I'm on, but there you go.

To be clear... for those at the back who really have been sleeping... I voted remain.

And the reason I quote 'evidence and facts' that support my side of the argument is because, by and large, the evidence and the facts support my side of the argument.


Don't worry, you've been perfectly clear, but trying to tie Ford pulling out of Bridgend with jobs being lost because of Brexit is neither evidence nor fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Feb 20 at 17:23
Originally posted by Mike Noc Mike Noc wrote:

Don't worry, you've been perfectly clear, but trying to tie Ford pulling out of Bridgend with jobs being lost because of Brexit is neither evidence nor fact.


The Brigend closure may, or may not, have already been in the pipeline irrespective of Brexit, but you also need to be up front about what Ford's EU President, Stuart Rowley, said at the time when he was asked if further job losses could come in the event of a deal with the European Union not being struck. His response was: "Should a no-deal Brexit happen, we will need to evaluate the environment with regards to tariffs and customs issues - we’re hoping that doesn’t happen. If the business environment changes significantly, we will have to review our business plan."

Given that we are currently heading for a No-Deal Brexit, I would suggest that my original point still stands up to scrutiny.

And before anyone tries to suggest that PM Johnson is going to get us a good deal, I would point to the following indicators:

1. A No-Deal Brexit remains the default outcome of the transition period.
2. The team in Downing Street are currently working very hard to stop people talking about a No-Deal Brexit. They have banned civil servants from using the term, and are trying to re-badge 'No-Deal' as 'a trading relationship with the EU like Australia’s'.
3. PM Johnson had a woeful track record on negotiations during his time as London Mayor, with a litany of poor deals which London tax-payers had to pick up the tab for.
4. The UK has, by every estimation, a fraction of the time available that most credible experts say is required to actually negotiate a meaningful trade deal.
5. The UK has already adopted, in statements by various ministers and the PM, a number of red-lines which make a No Deal exit more likely.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Feb 20 at 17:29
Thats the most cheerful thing you have writen.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Feb 20 at 17:33
Originally posted by nicq nicq wrote:

I would say that the majority of brexit supporters are probability labour supporters but due to the fact that they are totally incapable of running a government their supporters have turned to the only option.


I don't think the polling and statistical data supports your contention - it suggests instead that Leave supporters were largely Conservative and UKIP supporters.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Feb 20 at 17:39
Originally posted by nicq nicq wrote:

Thats the most cheerful thing you have writen.
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What's the cheerful bit for you ...?

Is it the idea of ending the transition period with a No-Deal Brexit?

I don't need to be much of a fortune teller to know that if we end up in that position, then none of us will have very much to be cheerful about, including you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mike Noc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 20 at 11:04
Originally posted by clift_d clift_d wrote:

The Brigend closure may, or may not, have already been in the pipeline irrespective of Brexit, but you also need to be up front about what Ford's EU President, Stuart Rowley, said at the time when he was asked if further job losses could come in the event of a deal with the European Union not being struck. His response was: "Should a no-deal Brexit happen, we will need to evaluate the environment with regards to tariffs and customs issues - we’re hoping that doesn’t happen. If the business environment changes significantly, we will have to review our business plan."

Given that we are currently heading for a No-Deal Brexit, I would suggest that my original point still stands up to scrutiny.


You seem to have left out the bit where Stuart Rowley, President of Ford Europe, publicly stated that the closure of Bridgend had 'nothing to do with Brexit', which completely contradicts your original point.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 20 at 12:01
Originally posted by Mike Noc Mike Noc wrote:

Originally posted by clift_d clift_d wrote:

The Brigend closure may, or may not, have already been in the pipeline irrespective of Brexit, but you also need to be up front about what Ford's EU President, Stuart Rowley, said at the time when he was asked if further job losses could come in the event of a deal with the European Union not being struck. His response was: "Should a no-deal Brexit happen, we will need to evaluate the environment with regards to tariffs and customs issues - we’re hoping that doesn’t happen. If the business environment changes significantly, we will have to review our business plan."

Given that we are currently heading for a No-Deal Brexit, I would suggest that my original point still stands up to scrutiny.


You seem to have left out the bit where Stuart Rowley, President of Ford Europe, publicly stated that the closure of Bridgend had 'nothing to do with Brexit', which completely contradicts your original point.


I think you should perhaps go back and read my original post again, which said:

Quote At this point I think it's fair to say that if you still think that a No Deal Brexit, or indeed any kind of Brexit, will be beneficial for the UK then you've either got your hand in the cookie jar or you're a muppet.

The fact that Brigend may not have closed for reasons directly arising from Brexit does not negate the very direct warning that was given by the guy who'd just closed the plant that a No-Deal Brexit could well lead to further closures in the UK, and this is entirely in line with what I said in my original post.

You might think that the motor manufacturing sector in the UK is headed for a golden age of investment and productivity as a result of Brexit, but I doubt it, and I'm not alone in doubting it.

Even the Leave campaign's favourite economist, Prof Patrick Minford, believes that leaving the EU will lead to the UK car industry, and other UK manufacturing, being 'run down' in the same way as the coal industry and the steel industry were 'run down' - you can watch him say so to the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee in 2012:
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1056568783400243201


Edited by clift_d - 18 Feb 20 at 12:06
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mike Noc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 20 at 13:43
Your original post in full:


The s*** piles up so fast you need wings to stay above it...

Ford to close Bridgend engine plant with 1500 jobs lost on site and many hundreds more lost in the supply chain.

At this point I think it's fair to say that if you still think that a No Deal Brexit, or indeed any kind of Brexit, will be beneficial for the UK then you've either got your hand in the cookie jar or you're a muppet.

You have linked the Bridgend plant closure to Brexit, and yet the chap who is President of Ford Europe and who closed it publicly stated it had nothing to do with Brexit.

I know who I believe. Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote clift_d Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 20 at 14:50
Originally posted by Mike Noc Mike Noc wrote:

I know who I believe. Wink

No need to believe me when I say a forthcoming No-Deal Brexit poses an existential threat to the UK Car Industry? It's the consensus view pretty much everywhere except the 'Leave bubble'.

Why has investment in the UK car industry slumped to around £90 Million last year, from nearly £2 Billion in 2016, while car production figures have also dropped by over a third over the same period? Why has Nissan reversed its 2016 decision to make the next X-trail in Sunderland, which will be now be made in Japan? Why have Vauxhall stated that the decision as to whether they make the next generation Astra at Ellesmere Port, and guarantee the survival of the plant there, depends on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. And how about the CEO of Ford Europe, who has been quoted as saying:
Originally posted by Steve Armstrong, CEO of Ford of Europe Steve Armstrong, CEO of Ford of Europe wrote:

Hard Brexit is a red line. It could severely damage the UK’s competitiveness and result in a significant threat to much of the auto industry, including our own UK manufacturing operations.

You can selectively pick and choose your quotes and tidbits all you like, with a cheeky nudge and a wink, but the car manufacturing industry does not agree with your rose-tinted view of its prospects in the UK if we end up in a No-Deal scenario. Should that be the outcome, then it will be to the detriment of thousands of communities up and down the country, who will be on the receiving end of these industries being 'run down', as Patrick Minford terms it.


Edited by clift_d - 18 Feb 20 at 17:51
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nicq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 20 at 18:24
if brexit is so bad for the car industry why are VW moving a plant to Turkey. 
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